Region Numbers Near Record while National Numbers Set New Ones
AAA is forecasting more than 9.1 million travelers from the West North Central Region* (WNC) are forecast to travel 50 miles or more for the year-end holiday period (from Saturday, December 21 to Wednesday, January 1). That’s 139,000 more than 2023, but less than the record set in 2019.
*West North Central (WNC): IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
Nationwide, AAA expects 3 million more travelers than last year. An estimated 119.3 million people will travel 50 miles or more. This narrowly surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by 64,000 travelers.
“Travelers should expect the roads, airports and cruise terminals to be more crowded than normal,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “So, finalize your travel plans now and give yourself extra time to get to your destination. We also suggest travel insurance, which provides assistance in the event winter weather or something unexpected interferes with your plans.”
Factors influencing this year’s travel forecast:
- Travel volume is being driven by consumer spending as inflation continues to moderate.
- Strong employment continues to drive rising wages, and with inflation leveling off, consumers are expected to spend nearly 5% more than last year as incomes rise at a similar level.
- Economic growth continues to remain steady, with Q4 real GDP growth expected at 2.0% in Q4 compared to last year.
Year-End Travelers by Mode
By Car: AAA expects 2.5 million more people on the roads this year. Nationwide, an estimated 107 million will take a road trip of 50 miles or more. That’s just shy of the record of 108 million road travelers – set in 2019.
Road travel numbers are expected to be below records for the region, even with 8.3 million expected to take a road trip. That’s 83,000 more road-trippers than last year but less than the 2019 record. Nearly 90% of holiday travelers will drive to their destinations, making it the most popular way to travel even without setting a record.
“Many travelers, particularly families with young children, prefer the flexibility and lower cost that road trips provide,” said Brian Ortner, spokesman, AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Gas demand in December goes down as the weather gets colder, more people work remotely, holiday shoppers purchase their gifts online versus in person. Road conditions, in addition to colder temps are also a factor in deciding on a road trip for the holidays.”
Gas prices are expected to be competitive with last year’s levels and could remain lower. During the last two weeks of 2023, Nebraska gas prices averaged $2.87 per gallon, In Iowa, the average was $2.80. As of the morning of December 11, 2024 drivers are paying around $2.74 per gallon in Nebraska and $2.70 in Iowa To view updated national, state, and metro area gas price averages, visit GasPrices.AAA.com.
AAA car rental partner Hertz says Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, Phoenix, and Tampa are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the holidays. The busiest car pick-up days are expected to be Friday, December 20 and Saturday, December 21. The busiest time for rental returns is expected to be the weekend and Monday after Christmas. The average length of rental is one week.
By Air: Nationally, AAA expects air travel to set a new record this holiday season. Nearly 7.9 million Americans are forecast to take at least one domestic flight. That number surpasses the previous record of 7.5 million air travelers last year. AAA booking data shows flights are 4% more expensive this holiday season compared to last year. The average domestic ticket is $830. International flights are 13% more expensive, averaging $1,630 a ticket.
By Other Modes: The number of Americans traveling by bus, train, and cruise this holiday season is up nearly 10% nationally compared to last year and over 13% in the WNC Region since 2019. AAA expects 4.47 million people will travel by other modes. That number is the highest it’s been in 20 years. Cruise bookings out of domestic ports are up 37% compared to last holiday season. Cruising is popular this time of year as many families enjoy celebrating the holidays aboard a ship full of activities and food.
AAA’s Road Trip Safety Tips
With an additional 2.5 million travelers expected on the roads, AAA urges drivers to prioritize safety with the following tips:
Follow Posted Speed Limits: While it’s tempting to speed to save time, the facts don’t support it. Even minor increases in speed can make crashes deadly.
- Driving 80 mph instead of 75 mph over 100 miles saves only 5 minutes, hardly worth the risk.
- Speeding may feel faster but often leads to tragedy.
Drive Only When Alert and Refreshed: Driving on 4-5 hours of sleep is as dangerous as driving with a 0.08 BAC (legal intoxication). Less than 4 hours of sleep? The risk doubles.
- Travel during hours you’re normally awake and avoid overnight drives.
- Steer clear of heavy meals, drowsy medications, and alcohol.
- For long trips, take breaks every 2 hours or 100 miles. Use these breaks to switch drivers if possible, or park at a safe location and nap for 20-30 minutes to recharge.
Slow Down, Move Over: A roadside worker is killed every other week in the U.S. To help prevent these tragedies, AAA asks drivers to Slow Down, Move Over.
- When you see an emergency responder on the side of the road assisting a stranded driver, reduce your speed.
- If possible, change lanes to give those crews room to do their jobs safely.
- All 50 states and the District of Columbia have Move Over laws in place.
Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects drivers will experience the worst traffic delays the weekends before Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. The holidays themselves are expected to have minimal congestion.
“With a near record number of auto travelers expected this holiday season, drivers should expect delays in and around major metro areas, with Sunday, December 22 expected to be the nation’s worst day to travel,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours during the week. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the evening commute.”
Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located.
For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.
Holiday Forecast Methodology
Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of November 4, 2024.
Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
Year-End Holiday Travel Period
For this forecast, the year-end holiday travel period is defined as the twelve-day period from Saturday, December 21 to Wednesday, January 1. AAA’s year-end holiday travel period can range from 10 to 13 days, depending on which day of the week Christmas and New Year’s Day fall. This year's holiday travel period is two days longer than last year. While a longer holiday travel period can offer more options for departures and return trips, all the year-end holiday periods contain two weekends.
Winter Adventures Await in Council Bluffs
If you’re looking for a winter getaway the whole family will love, look no further than the Council Bluffs metro area. Whether you're seeking thrills on the slopes at Mt. Crescent Ski Area, bouncing high at The Hub, or enjoying cozy indoor activities like movies, sweet treats, and exploring fascinating museum exhibits, there’s something for everyone to enjoy this season. The area is easy to navigate, and with the proximity to Omaha's Eppley Airfield, it’s an affordable and convenient destination for travel. After a day of adventure, relax and recharge at one of Council Bluffs' comfortable hotels, perfect for unwinding and getting ready for another day of fun.
Bundle up, bring the family, and discover all the exciting winter activities Council Bluffs has to offer. For more ideas, check out our Winter Date Ideas, Indoor Fun, and Outdoor Winter Activities. Make this winter UNforgettable, and create lasting memories for everyone!
